Card
The selections most likely to land, ranked by a probability that has been checked against what happened.
Best pick of the day
The most reliable selection priced between 1.6 and 1.85 on Monday 19 October, out of 49 that qualified. Ranked on the claim discounted by how much its confidence band has historically overstated itself — a band that came up two points short scales every claim in it down to match.
This band has landed 65.3% over 64,618 historical bets.
Written down on and not revised since, so the numbers above are the ones the record was made at.
The next 3 match days
The strongest selection in each price band, for each day. All of them are written into the record the moment they appear here — Saturday's pick is logged on Thursday, at Thursday's price, and never revised. Three bands rather than one because they test the forecast at three different confidence levels, and because one pick a day needs ten months to reach a sample worth reading.
| Day | Band | League | Match | Selection | Confidence | Fair | Offered | Edge | Band record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe 1.3–1.45 | Primeira Liga | Braga v Gil Vicente | Under 3.5 goals | 76.6% | 1.31 | – | – | 77.1% | |
| Best 1.6–1.85 | Allsvenskan | Degerfors IF v Kalmar FF | Away team under 1.5 goals | 62.4% | 1.60 | – | – | 65.3% | |
| Longer 2–2.4 | Ekstraklasa | Wisła Płock v Radomiak Radom | Draw or away (X2) | 49.6% | 2.02 | – | – | 48.6% | |
| Safe 1.3–1.45 | League Two | Bristol Rovers v Salford City | Away team over 0.5 goals | 76.6% | 1.31 | – | – | 77.5% | |
| Best 1.6–1.85 | League Two | Gillingham v Port Vale | Away team under 1.5 goals | 62.5% | 1.60 | – | – | 65.3% | |
| Longer 2–2.4 | League Two | Exeter City v Crewe Alexandra | Over 9.5 corners | 50.0% | 2.00 | – | – | 55.0% | |
| Safe 1.3–1.45 | J1 League | Shimizu S Pulse v FC Machida Zelvia | Under 3.5 goals | 76.6% | 1.31 | – | – | 77.1% | |
| Best 1.6–1.85 | MLS | FC Cincinnati v D.C. United | Away team under 1.5 goals | 62.5% | 1.60 | – | – | 65.3% | |
| Longer 2–2.4 | J1 League | Fagiano Okayama v Mito HollyHock | Home win | 49.6% | 2.02 | 1.88 | -6.8% | 47.7% |
Accumulator pick
Of every accumulator paying at least 3, this is the one most likely to land. Each leg has to clear that target's n-th root on its own, so no single long shot carries the slip, and every leg comes from a different fixture — two selections on one match are correlated, and multiplying them overstates the whole thing.
Every size is written into the record the first time it appears each day and graded afterwards — History keeps a separate record for each. Today's 4-leg slip went down on and has not been revised since.
| Date | League | Match | Selection | Confidence | Fair | Offered |
|---|
The card
Ranked by calibrated probability. One selection per fixture by default, because Over 1.5 and Home −1.5 in the same match are nearly the same bet — stacking them makes a card look far more diversified than it is.
Offered and Edge are blank wherever the price feed does not quote that market. It carries 1X2 and, where they are quoted, Over/Under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5. Handicaps, team totals, BTTS and corners are priced here and nowhere else, so there is no offer to compare against. Fair is always filled in: it is what the price would have to be for the bet to break even.
| On the slip | Match | Selection |
|---|
Confidence is not value
The top of any such card is a wall of 96% picks at fair odds of 1.04, and those are the prices bookmakers get most right. Edge is the only column about money, and it only exists where the fixture feed quotes a price — 1X2 and the goal totals. Drag the fair-odds slider up to ask the more useful question: of the bets that actually pay something, which are the safest?